The Growing Shadow of Autocracy

Global Freedom Retreats for the 20th Consecutive Year

Maryam Tahmasebi, Journalist at Traces&Dreams

In the past year, 54 out of 195 countries experienced a decline in freedom, while only 35 showed improvement. Freedom House in its 2026 annual report “The Growing Shadow of Autocracy”, states that this marks the 20th consecutive year the world has moved toward the erosion of political rights and civil liberties.

But what is the freedom index? Global freedom is defined based on two main areas: political rights and civil liberties. In political rights, elections, pluralism, political participation, and government functioning are the determining factors. Civil liberties include freedom of expression and belief, the right to organize and assemble, the rule of law, judicial independence, and individual freedoms.

According to Freedom House, this 20-year global descent into authoritarianism is rooted in military coups, armed conflicts, and attacks by elected leaders on democratic institutions. Also, the sudden shift of democratic powers like the United States away from their traditional roles as defenders of freedom has created a dangerous vacuum now being filled by autocrats.

The Largest Declines of 2025

Guinea-Bissau took the top spot in the decline. The November 2025 elections were accompanied by a coup in which an armed attack disrupted the entire electoral process. Following Guinea-Bissau, the situation in Tanzania is reported as dire due to the disqualification of opposition candidates, media suppression, forced disappearances of dissidents, and the deaths of 1,000 protesters. Burkina Faso, El Salvador, and Madagascar follow in the rankings.

Also, the Middle East is a region where 91% of the population lives in a “Not Free” status. In 2025, Syria saw the largest global score improvement following the collapse of the Assad regime and a relative opening of media space and civic activities. Conversely, the state of freedom in Iran worsened due to widespread crackdowns following conflicts with Israel and the mass expulsion of Afghan refugees. In Kuwait, democratic standards also regressed with the dissolution of parliament and extensive revocation of citizens’ nationalities, while the war in Gaza led to a humanitarian catastrophe.

The United States recorded a 3-point drop in 2025, reaching a final score of 81 on the freedom index. Reasons for this decline include intensified partisan deadlocks in Congress and the longest government shutdown in the country’s history, the expansion of unilateral executive power, and the weakening of anti-corruption standards by the new administration. Also, pressure on the free speech of non-citizens and the creation of an atmosphere of intimidation for political activities contributed to the country’s lower score. All together, these factors have caused the U.S. to lose 12 points over the last 20 years, the third-largest drop among “Free” countries after Nauru and Bulgaria.

Which Countries Improved?

While global freedom is generally deteriorating, countries like Syria, Sri Lanka, Bolivia, and Gabon saw a more open political climate than before. Notably, Bolivia moved from “Partly Free” to “Free” due to a peaceful transfer of power.

Why is the World Falling Away from Freedom?

Freedom House has identified four key drivers that have undermined democracy over the past twenty years:

1. Violence and Armed Conflict

Beneath the rubble of war lies another destruction concerning democratic infrastructure; war has the power to push back even weak democracies. In 2025, countries like Sudan and Yemen experienced a freefall for this reason. Sudan suffered due to massacres, sexual violence, and forced displacement, while Yemen reached this state because of war and foreign interventions.

2. Military Coups

Coups begin with the rapid destruction of democratic institutions and often lead to long-term societal suppression. For instance, in Mali, the experience of three coups since 2012 has strengthened the roots of a military dictatorship, resulting in the elimination of all political parties. Thailand, with its coup-prone history (over 20 coups), has also been unable to fully experience democracy.

3. Gradual Erosion of Institutions

Unlike coups, this process of destroying democracy is slow and carried out from within by elected leaders. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán has marginalized democracy using methods like “gerrymandering” and media control. In Mexico, the abolition of transparency institutions and changing the judicial appointment system to partisan direct elections severely threaten judicial independence.

4. Authoritarian Repression

Autocratic regimes also use state institutions as weapons against critics. In Azerbaijan, the Aliyev family suppressed any opposition by removing presidential term limits and turning oil resources into a patronage network. In Belarus, following the 2020 election fraud, Alexander Lukashenko crushed protests with deadly violence and detained more than 32,000 people.

Over the past 20 years, three types of freedom have suffered the most:

• Media Freedom: In China, the media freedom score has reached zero due to ultra-advanced censorship and Communist Party control over the internet. In Rwanda, the government eliminated independent media by arresting journalists on charges of insulting the president.
• Individual Freedom of Expression and Speech: The use of spyware in countries like Serbia against civil society has caused widespread self-censorship among citizens. In Iran, following the June 2025 conflict with Israel, more than 21,000 people were detained in a new wave of crackdowns.
• Right to Due Process: In Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan completely politicized the judiciary by purging thousands of police officers, judges, and prosecutors. The 2025 arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu is a prime example of these unfair proceedings.

2025 was a dark turning point in foreign policy, witnessing a global shift and a widespread retreat of democracies from their traditional roles. The U.S. government, through an executive order in January 2025, closed the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and canceled approximately $80.5 billion in foreign aid. The State Department also abandoned its long-standing practice of commenting on the integrity of foreign elections. Simultaneously in Europe, Germany reduced its humanitarian budgets by $4.1 billion, and the UK, under Keir Starmer’s government, brought international aid to its lowest level in 25 years. This vacuum allowed international organizations like the UN to be captured by the “Like-Minded Group,” including China, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, to coordinate and block human rights resolutions.

2025 was a dark turning point in foreign policy, witnessing a global shift and a widespread retreat of democracies from their traditional roles. The U.S. government, through an executive order in January 2025, closed the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and canceled approximately $80.5 billion in foreign aid. The State Department also abandoned its long-standing practice of commenting on the integrity of foreign elections. Simultaneously in Europe, Germany reduced its humanitarian budgets by $4.1 billion, and the UK, under Keir Starmer’s government, brought international aid to its lowest level in 25 years. This vacuum allowed international organizations like the UN to be captured by the “Like-Minded Group,” including China, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, to coordinate and block human rights resolutions.

Despite this grim atmosphere, there are still reasons for hope; democracies have proven to be resilient systems capable of reform. Statistics show that 76 out of the 87 countries that were “Free” in 2005 remain in that category. Successful models like Bhutan, which transitioned from an absolute monarchy to a democracy, recorded the world’s largest 20-year improvement. Liberia also managed to largely rebuild the rule of law and civic rights after two decades of civil war. Also, popular resistance is still alive; in China, despite severe repression, the number of recorded protests in late 2025 increased by 45% compared to the same period the previous year.

Freedom House also proposes solutions for the retreat of freedom. The report suggests that to reclaim democratic momentum and stop the twenty-year decline of democracy, we must rethink international macro-strategies. Democracies should defend the rule of law and electoral integrity by diplomatic coordination and creating a united front in international organizations, while reducing strategic dependencies on autocratic regimes. Given the reduction in government budgets, the democratic aid system must be redesigned through public-private partnerships and structures like a “Global Freedom Fund” to provide sustainable support for independent media and human rights defenders. Finally, by prioritizing engagement with younger generations in digital spaces, empowering media literacy, and countering influence campaigns and fake content, we can design a new path to rebuild civic identity and help the survival of democratic values for future generations.